Wall Street closes at a record for the first time since end of January
The forward 4-quarter estimate (FFQE) for the S&P 500 increased to $338.29 from last week’s $322.20. That a $16 and change jump for the FFQE however, the percentage increase is normal given the roll-forward in the FFQE from Q1 ’26 – Q4 ’26, to Q2 ’26 through Q1 ’27.
- S&P 500 FFQE as of Friday, April 3rd is $338.29 versus the prior week’s $322.20 and the quarter start of $300.22;
- The PE ratio on the forward estimate is now 19.5x
- Even with the rally last week, the S&P 500 earnings yield (SP EY) still moved higher on the week, from last week’s 5.06% to this week’s 5.14%. It was the big jump in the FFQE thanks to the quarterly roll which which pushed the SP EY higher.
Q4 ’25 S&P 500 EPS and revenue growth ended the quarter at +14.1% and +9.2% after starting the quarter at +8.9% expected EPS growth and +7.3% expected S&P 500 revenue growth.
Q1 ’26 is starting off the quarter +14.4% expected EPS growth and +9% expected revenue growth (again) so, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Q1 ’25 S&P 500 EPS growth 17% ‘ish, with S&P 500 revenue up 10% – 11%.
Current full-year 2029 S&P 500 EPS growth is expected to be +19% per the current LSEG data.
(S&P 500 revenue estimates rarely have the same “upside surprise” factor that S&P 500 EPS exhibit. A 2% upside surprise for S&P 500 revenue is at the higher end of the normal range.)
Just a fun statistical fact to share with readers: the 2012 calendar-year S&P 500 actual EPS was $$103.80. The current estimates for calendar year ’26, ’27 and ’28 are:
- ’26: $323.02
- ’27: $377.35
- ’28: $425.95
Style-Box Update:
This style-box update shows how the various styles are performing YTD, as well as the annual return for each style-box.
Large-cap value is outperforming again as it did in February – March ’25, thanks to the Liberation Day correction. Personally, I’m still leery of the large-cap growth style given its strong returns over the last three years.
Note the 1-year return on mid-cap growth.
The equal-weight ETFs are performing in line with the value ETFs.
Summary:
Iran changed everything as soon as the first American and Israeli aircraft struck the country. Crude oil jumped, the dollar strengthened (ruining the international and emerging market rotation), and interest rates rose.
Bloomberg actually reported this weekend that Strait of Hormuz traffic has actually increased in the past few days. There was another Bloomberg headline noting that both Japan and France saw oil transport ships navigate the Strait safely, so – like everyone else – watch crude oil – particularly brent crude prices – to try and read the tea leaves.
I thought Thursday’s action in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq was very healthy: anytime the major indices open very weak (and the Dow opened down 615 basis points Thursday am) and then finish with gains or minor losses, that is usually a positive market tell.
Like everyone else, this blog will be watching futures markets Sunday night.
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Disclaimer: None of this is advice or a recommendation, but only an opinion. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All S&P 500 EPS and revenue data is sourced from LSEG.
Thanks for reading.